Poll: Are you prepared for the current recession?
Лице кое објавува дискусија: ProZ.com Staff
ProZ.com Staff
ProZ.com Staff
ПЕРСОНАЛ НА СТРАНИЦАТА
Sep 15, 2023

This forum topic is for the discussion of the poll question "Are you prepared for the current recession?".

View the poll results »



 
Zea_Mays
Zea_Mays  Identity Verified
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Interesting Sep 15, 2023

Around (currently) 12% of the poll participants do not see any recession.
What is your perception?

Any idea someone how long recessions last? And the current one (if there is one)?


expressisverbis
 
Maria Teresa Borges de Almeida
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Yes Sep 15, 2023

I’m having steady work and I have some savings. Besides that, I will say I'm frugal and adaptable…

Becca Resnik
expressisverbis
Marijke Singer
 
Dan Lucas
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FRED is your friend Sep 15, 2023

Zea_Mays wrote:
Any idea someone how long recessions last? And the current one (if there is one)?

Depends on the country and how you define recessions (for the US there is the NBER, Sahm rule, etc.), but typically they last 12-24 months. Go have a browse.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECM
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

Dan


The Shredder
expressisverbis
 
Zea_Mays
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Forbes Sep 15, 2023

Dan Lucas wrote:

Depends on the country and how you define recessions (for the US there is the NBER, Sahm rule, etc.), but typically they last 12-24 months. Go have a browse.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECM
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

Dan


Interesting. I see the graphs stop at end of August 2022.

What they are saying at Forbes:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2023/08/05/recession-forecast-still-right-for-late-2023-or-early-2024/

It seems to me that the recession started last year with very high inflation
because of skyrocketing energy costs. Since then, many people have been spending less
as wages have not kept pace with inflation (which at the beginning reached more than 10% in Italy).
As people spend less, output falls, unemployment may rise, which would lead to further spending cuts, and so on.


[Bearbeitet am 2023-09-15 11:53 GMT]


expressisverbis
 
Dan Lucas
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Actually quite recent Sep 15, 2023

Zea_Mays wrote:
Interesting. I see the graphs stop at end of August 2022.

It may look that way, but the latest data points are for August 2023. If you download the data it is clearer.
You probably want to look at the PMIs for different countries for more timely indicators.

As for predictions as to what will happen going forward, there are as roughly as many opinions as there are observers!

My general sense is that it's hard to be positive about the next 12-18 months. Rising interest rates have already had an effect on consumption, but arguably some industries (like construction) have yet to feel the full impact. Obviously this will vary by country and industry.

Regards,
Dan


Zea_Mays
expressisverbis
 
Tom in London
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You might as well ask.. Sep 15, 2023

ProZ.com Staff wrote:
l question "Are you prepared for the current recession?".


You might as well ask "are you prepared for the Spanish Inquisition?"


The Shredder
Liena V.
expressisverbis
Philip Lees
 
Tony Keily
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Shouldn't that be... Sep 15, 2023

...'were you prepared' if the recession is current?

Zea_Mays
expressisverbis
Tom in London
The Shredder
Michele Fauble
 
expressisverbis
expressisverbis
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What's happening here? Sep 15, 2023

I don't read anything more positive, interesting, pleasant or amusing here anymore, and healthy sense of humor is not allowed.
On the other hand, it is my impression that something else is much more important these days, such as translators/translation are dying, current or past recessions, humans being replaced by AI, moaning on a daily basis, and who knows what else...
Please let's stop to inundate ourselves with all this negativity. This wave of pessimism it's becoming toxic. ... See more
I don't read anything more positive, interesting, pleasant or amusing here anymore, and healthy sense of humor is not allowed.
On the other hand, it is my impression that something else is much more important these days, such as translators/translation are dying, current or past recessions, humans being replaced by AI, moaning on a daily basis, and who knows what else...
Please let's stop to inundate ourselves with all this negativity. This wave of pessimism it's becoming toxic.
Call me an optimist or whatever, but these words mean a lot for me:

“Optimism doesn’t mean that you are blind to the reality of the situation. It means that you remain motivated to seek a solution to whatever problems arise.”
The Dalai Lama
Collapse


The Shredder
Helena Chavarria
Maria Teresa Borges de Almeida
Dan Lucas
Mr. Satan (X)
Philip Lees
Constance de Crayencour
 
Laurent Di Raimondo
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ЛОКАЛИЗАТОР НА САЈТОТ
Already prepared, indeed! Sep 15, 2023

ProZ.com Staff wrote:

This forum topic is for the discussion of the poll question "Are you prepared for the current recession?".

View the poll results »



Are you talking about the recession brought about by this shitty ChatGPT implementation that ProZ Staff is foolishly trying to impose out there?

You bet I'm fully prepared! Starting by switching off my ProZ annual automatic renewal subscription... Just done, indeed! 😉

[Modifié le 2023-09-15 17:59 GMT]


The Shredder
Maria Teresa Borges de Almeida
Marijke Singer
expressisverbis
Philip Lees
tabor
 
Zea_Mays
Zea_Mays  Identity Verified
Италија
Local time: 01:49
англиски на германски
+ ...
different perceptions & chances Sep 19, 2023

So it seems
about 21% see/feel no recession
about 73% feel there's something going on.

Well, the good thing about recessions is that they eventually end
(regarding the current one, I hope before the 12-18 months assumed by Dan).
It's also a good time to do all the work or things we haven't had time to do before,
like reworking websites, updating stuff, learning new skills...


 


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Poll: Are you prepared for the current recession?






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